Thinking In Bets Annie Duke Pdf Extra Quality -

She introduces the concept of and "bet sizing." If you think there is a 90% chance of rain, you take an umbrella. If you think there is a 20% chance, you don't. But in business, we rarely assign numerical odds to our beliefs. Thinking in Bets teaches you to calibrate your confidence.

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Assess our level of confidence (e.g., "I'm 70% sure" rather than "I'm certain"). thinking in bets annie duke pdf